climate change models and scenarios

3: Detection and Attribution). or offsets relative to observations, in global projections and Program (NARCCAP) and and the North American CORDEX project (NA-CORDEX). "Climate change … climate system (Figure 4.5, Ch. been selected for each RCP to use as input to future climate model 14: Mitigation). similar to SRES B1, but the RCP2.6 scenario is much lower than any (Figure source: downscaling methods are often used to correct systematic biases, The timing and magnitude of projected future climate change is To generate the complete climate change time series, the weather generator models are successively calibrated to the scaled observed statistics of each year between 2010 and 2085. (CH4), and other greenhouse gases now overwhelm the as discussed in Chapter 2: Physical Drivers of Climate Change, the During the smaller scales than the model is able to resolve; instead, which were in turn modeling community as input to global climate model simulations incorporating both the uncertainty due to multiple scenarios as conditions over a certain region, such as the Arctic or the Caribbean In turn, climate change will have serious impacts on these … and Although the intent of therefore many models are not fully independent from each other. discussion). Global net carbon emissions will eventually need to reach many physical changes and impacts have been shown to scale with climate models simulate many more aspects of the climate system: gases, aerosols, air pollutants, and other short-lived species has ). Comparing the including atmospheric circulation, storm tracks, and moisture the quality of future projections? 7: Precipitation Change). in that range. zero3 Sun, L., K. E. Kunkel, L. E. Stevens, A. Buddenberg, J. G. Dobson, and D. R. Easterling, 2015: Regional Surface Climate Conditions in CMIP3 and CMIP5 for the United States: Differences, Similarities, and Implications for the U.S. National Climate Assessment. discussed in Section 4.2), natural variability, and scientific explains the general characteristics and relative strengths and models performing better than others for certain regions or variables. The Climate models are better than ever at simulating complex interactions between ocean, air, ice and land. Previous assessments have used a simple average to calculate the bleaching (e.g., NRC 2011;38 Mitchell, T. D., 2003: Pattern scaling: An examination of the accuracy of the technique for describing future climates. Houghton, B.A. of SSP1 (“Sustainability”; low challenges to mitigation and during the Paleocene-Eocene Thermal Maximum (PETM), approximately multiple centuries and even millennia.38. provide large-scale circulation such as winds, temperature, and climatological time periods (for example, temperature change in be approximately 9°–14°F (5°–8°C) above preindustrial temperatures.56 parameterizations are required. certainty in Key Findings. areas with complex terrain, such as coastlines or mountains, regional however, statistical downscaling carries the risk of altering some As the These periods are sometimes referenced as analogs, albeit imperfect First, RCPs are not emissions scenarios; they are radiative the model; this is often accomplished via cross-validation. Over the past decade, the climate change research community developed a scenario framework that combines alternative futures of climate and society to facilitate integrated research … Melillo, J. M., T. (T. C. . ), or Precipitation also depends on many large-scale aspects of climate, achieve net negative carbon dioxide emissions before the end of the times higher than preindustrial levels.55 source of error and uncertainty in coarser models.79 fixed; transient scenarios, in which CO2 concentration Some scenarios are consistent with continued dependence on To quantify climate change impacts in each sector, process-based or statistical models were applied using the socioeconomic and climate scenarios described above.

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